Holborn and St Pancras By-Election Result: Labour Holds Seat as Greens Surge to Second

Labour has held the Holborn and St Pancras by-election — but the headline is not just the hold, it is the squeeze. Sagal Abdi-Wali, the Camden Council leader, was elected as the constituency's new MP with 12,292 votes (45.17%), beating Green Party leader Zack Polanski into second place with 8,928 votes (32.81%) in a contest that has reset expectations for the battle between Labour and the Greens.

The by-election was triggered by Sir Keir Starmer's resignation as an MP in September, and it was the first electoral test of Andy Burnham's leadership. On that measure, it was a pass — but an uneasy one.

The numbers that matter

Labour's majority fell from 11,572 in the 2024 general election to just 3,364. Turnout collapsed from 54% to 38.76%, with 27,309 ballots cast. The Conservatives finished a distant third on 1,922 votes (7.06%), followed by Reform UK on 1,612 (5.92%) and the Liberal Democrats on 924 (3.40%).

The Greens, meanwhile, more than tripled their 2024 vote share from 10.4% to 32.81% — their second-best by-election result in the party's history. Polanski immediately claimed vindication, arguing the result showed the Greens were becoming a serious electoral threat to Labour.

Who is Sagal Abdi-Wali?

The new MP's story is striking. A former child refugee from Somalia who went on to lead Camden Council, Abdi-Wali was the bookmakers' favourite from the start. In her victory speech at Camden Council's headquarters, she described the win as an extraordinary honour and said she hoped her election would show people who share her background that they belong in Britain. Labour has held the constituency in every election since it was created in 1983.

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What it means for Polanski and the Greens

For Polanski, the defeat came with immediate questions about his leadership. According to the BBC's Newscast, he told Sky News that his future was up to Green Party members, while insisting he had never been prouder to be a Green. He pointed to the tripled vote share as evidence the party is moving forward — though analysts note that independent candidate Andrew Feinstein's 18.9% in 2024, combined with the Green's 10.4%, suggests the underlying left-of-Labour vote barely moved at all.

The result also lands in the middle of a separate Green Party crisis. At the party's conference earlier this month, members backed a motion declaring "Zionism is racism" — a move that prompted resignations and warnings from senior figures that the party risked capture by extremists.

What it means for Burnham

For the Prime Minister, the hold is a relief but not a triumph. National polls show Labour has recovered roughly six to seven points since the leadership change, but the shrinking majority and the Green surge show how much of the party's 2024 coalition has scattered. The by-election confirmed the pattern pollsters have warned about: Labour's voters are drifting to the Greens, the Lib Dems and to abstention — and Reform is waiting to come through the middle.