650 More Prisoners Freed Today as Second Wave of Early Release Scheme Begins

Hundreds of prison gates swung open across England and Wales this morning — and for the second time in less than a fortnight, men who had expected to spend months longer behind bars walked free. Around 650 prisoners were released today in the second wave of the government's early release scheme, leaving jail after serving just a third of their sentences instead of half.

According to The Times, today's tranche covers offenders serving between 18 months and two and a half years. At HMP Durham, reporters watched released men cheer as they stepped outside, one punching the air and shouting "Yes cuzzie", while another, asked if he had a message for the prime minister, replied: "Scrap the recalls."

650 prisoners freed today: who is being released in phase two

The releases are the second stage of a phased programme under the Sentencing Act 2026. Under the new rules, eligible prisoners serving standard fixed-term sentences are freed after serving one third of their custodial term, rather than the half that was previously the norm.

Today's group includes burglars, thieves and shoplifters, as well as people convicted of assault, domestic abuse and stalking, according to The Sun. Those freed remain on licence and under supervision — though The Sun reported that nearly half are not tagged immediately after release.

Not everyone qualifies. According to The Times, ministers excluded people convicted of rape, serious child sex offences, grooming, unlawful killing and indecent assault. Around 1,000 offenders will stay behind bars who would previously have been eligible, including the killers of PC Andrew Harper, who died in the line of duty in 2019.

Today's release follows around 700 offenders freed on 1 October, all serving terms of less than 19 months. Further batches will cover increasingly long sentences, culminating next June with eligible prisoners serving more than 12 years. Ministry of Justice estimates put the total at around 4,500 to 5,000 additional early releases.

Why the government says it has no choice

Ministers insist the scheme is not a choice but a necessity to stop the justice system collapsing. According to The Sun, men's prisons were running at 99 per cent of capacity at the start of October, with just over 1,100 free spaces available — and more than a third of the spaces freed by the first wave were filled again within days.

Ministry of Justice predictions cited by The Sun warned there would be no prison places left by November without early releases. An emergency scheme in 2024 had released some offenders at the 40 per cent mark of their sentence, according to The Times.

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The backlash: recalls, 'cover-up' claims and victims' fears

The first wave has already produced the headlines ministers dreaded. According to The Sun, Greater Manchester Police arrested eight prisoners within days of their release for violating criminal orders. Prolific shoplifter Michael Bogle, 38, was put back behind bars after stealing washing detergent just days after his release — the same crime he had been locked up for — and was sentenced to eight months.

The government also faces accusations of hiding the scale of the programme. According to the British Bulletin, the Ministry of Justice will not disclose the exact number released under the rolling scheme, instead folding the figures into existing statistics. Shadow Justice Secretary Nick Timothy accused the government of a "cover-up", telling the Daily Mail it was hiding the true scale of the scheme.

Probation on the brink as courts reform returns

The second wave lands as the probation service strains under the weight of monitoring thousands of newly released offenders. According to the BBC, the probation union Napo said the releases have put enormous strain on its members, who supervise offenders in the community.

On Tuesday, union members met to discuss next week's strike ballot. Probation officers have been offered 5 per cent by the Ministry of Justice; the union demands 12 per cent. The MoJ says the offer is fair and is twinned with a £700 million investment to recruit 1,300 extra officers and roll out AI tools to cut monitoring workloads.

What happens next

For the men who walked out today, freedom comes with conditions: licence terms, supervision, and in many cases tags. One released man told reporters he had to travel immediately to Bristol, where he had been arrested, or risk recall. Breach the conditions and they go straight back inside — as the first wave's recalls have already shown.

For the government, the calculation is simple: keep releasing, or run out of cells. For victims, police and probation officers, the question is whether a system already stretched to breaking point can safely absorb thousands more early releases before the final, most serious cohort walks free next June.

Photo: Durham Prison, by John Illingworth (CC BY-SA 2.0), via Wikimedia Commons.